Exit polls predict hung assembly in Karnataka, most say Congress will be the single largest party

Bengaluru: almost all exit polls Hung predicted on Wednesday Assembly in Karnataka, Congress is emerging as the single largest party, followed by Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Janata Dal (Secular) is in a position to play the role of kingmaker.

The Times Now-ETG exit poll put the Congress at 113, the BJP at 85 and the JD(S) at the majority mark of 23. in the 224-member assembly, Meanwhile, News Nation-CGS gave BJP a lead with 114 seats, followed by Congress with 86 and JD(S) with 21 seats.

The ABP News-C Voter exit poll had given 100-112 seats to the Congress, 83-95 to the BJP and 21-29 to the JD(S). Republic TV-P Mark predicted 94-108 seats for the Congress, 85-100 for the BJP and 24-32 for the JD(S), while Suvarna News-Jan Ki Baat predicted the BJP with 94-117. Gave a slight lead, followed by Congress with 91-106 and JD(S) with 14-24 seats.

TV9 Bharatvarsh – Pollstrat has predicted 99-109 seats for the Congress, 88-98 for the BJP and 21-26 for the JD(S). The Zee News-Matrize exit poll also predicted that Congress could emerge as the single largest party with 103-118 seats, followed by BJP with 79-94 and JD(S) with 25-33 seats.

Apart from Telangana, Karnataka is the only other state in southern India to go to polls ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, with the Narendra Modi-led BJP eyeing a third term.

Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai, the BJP’s face in the state – along with his predecessor BS Yeddyurappa – had appealed to voters through the media in Shiggaon in Haveri district to “strengthen democracy” and exercise their right to “make Karnataka proud”. progressive and glorious future”. To vote.

Earlier in the day, leaders of BJP, Congress and JD(S) and their families were photographed at places of worship before going to polling booths.

Polling in Karnataka took place on Wednesday, with the counting of votes scheduled for May 13.

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high-octane campaign

This time, the Modi-led BJP mounted a vigorous campaign, with the prime minister addressing 19 public meetings and six roadshows, including one that took Bengaluru by storm.

Union Home Minister Amit Shah addressed 16 public meetings and took part in 15 roadshows, while BJP president JP Nadda held 10 public meetings and 16 roadshows, according to data shared by the state BJP.

Under the leadership of Bommai, the BJP has introduced Hijab, Halal, azaanAnti-conversion law among others while promising to protect Hindutva. But when issues like Tipu Sultan vs Vinayak Damodar Savarkar, Uri Gowda-Nanje Gowda and others failed to resonate with the masses, the party reverted to social engineering by trying to retain the Lingayat support base and reach out to other key communities .

The BJP also hit out at former Congress president Sonia Gandhi over her alleged use of the word ‘sovereignty’ at a public rally and accused the Congress of leading the ‘tukde-tukde’ gang. Gandhi did not use the word in his speech in Hubballi, but a Twitter post from the official handle of the Congress put sovereignty in quotes, making it a part of the speech.

In comparison, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi held at least 18 rallies and two roadshows between April 16 and May 10, while Priyanka Gandhi Vadra held 12 public meetings and eight roadshows during the same period, according to Congress sources.

The Congress party localized the elections and tried to stay away from national issues in its campaign, focusing largely on state issues with an emphasis on rising prices and alleged corruption, while accusing the BJP of insulting its Lingayat leaders. also accused of

The Congress is trying to garner the support of the dominant Lingayat community by highlighting the alleged misbehavior of leaders like BS Yediyurappa, Jagadish Shettar and Laxman Savadi; The latter two joined the Congress last month.

Several Lingayat forums have pledged not to support the BJP, but it remains to be seen whether the community will return to the Congress fold after almost four decades of distancing itself from the party.

Although the Congress party’s manifesto promise to ban Bajrang Dal and Popular Front of India (PFI) prompted the BJP to make Hindutva its main poll issue, it remains to be seen whether this issue will have any impact on the outcome Or not of this high stakes election.

Hung Assembly and Horse-Trading

Past results have shown that Karnataka voters have different voting preferences when it comes to parliamentary and assembly elections.

In the 2018 assembly elections, in line with the fractured verdict predicted by most exit polls, voters in Karnataka delivered a hung assembly. In contrast, less than a year later, the BJP won 25 out of 28 seats in Karnataka in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

ndtv The poll of polls for the 2018 assembly elections – a final poll drawn from the results of the previous nine exit polls – had indicated that the BJP would be the single largest party with around 97 seats and the Congress would come second with 90. JD(S) was projected to get 31 seats.

Three of the nine agencies predicted that one of the parties would win a majority.

It is important to note that since the early 1980s, voters in Karnataka have dismissed every single incumbent government, often delivering a fractured mandate that gives way to unstable coalitions and horse-trading after elections.

Political instability in Karnataka

The SM Krishna-led Congress won a majority in the 1999 Karnataka elections, but parted ways with the JD(S) in 2004. The alliance was short-lived as JD(S) chief HD Deve Gowda’s son HD Kumaraswamy walked out and joined the alliance. Join hands with BJP to rule for next two years.

However, this alliance also did not last long as the JD(S) pulled out of the government just seven days after Kumaraswamy handed over the chief minister’s office to BS Yediyurappa.

This was followed by more than a month of President’s rule in the state, after the Yediyurappa-led BJP won 110 of the 224 seats in the 2008 assembly elections – just three short of the majority mark.

Following the alleged poaching of MLAs, the opposition coined the term ‘Operation Kamala’ to allege large-scale post-poll horse-trading.

Although the BJP was ruling on its own, allegations of corruption and growing infighting led Yeddyurappa’s government to be held hostage by his own minister, Gali Janardhana Reddy, who, along with several legislators, barged into a resort, demanding “better leadership”. were hidden

Yediyurappa was replaced by DV Sadananda Gowda, who served as Chief Minister from August 2011 to July 2012. Another round of discontent and infighting led to a change of chief minister and Jagadish Shettar was brought in.

The Siddaramaiah-led Congress then won 123 seats in 2013, taking advantage of infighting within the BJP and Yeddyurappa’s exit.

However, in 2018, the BJP emerged as the single largest party with 104 seats and Yeddyurappa was sworn in as chief minister just two days before his government fell due to lack of numbers.

Kumaraswamy became chief minister when the Congress supported him, but this government also fell after 14 months in 2019, as 17 MLAs of the alliance walked out in batches. Yediyurappa was then sworn in as the CM, but in July 2021, the BJP replaced him with Basavaraj Bommai.

(Editing by Amritansh Arora)

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