Fresh data pegs 2022-23 export-import tally below $3 billion

India’s goods trade numbers for February and March 2023 have been revised upwards by over $10 billion from the initial estimates. Image for representational purpose only. , Photo credit: The Hindu

India’s goods trade numbers for February and March 2023 have been revised upwards by $10 billion from initial estimates, and last year’s total export-import figures have been slashed by nearly $3 billion, with experts citing petroleum shipments as the main driver. marked as such. For the exceptionally high revision of recent export data.

While exports were earlier projected to grow by 6% to $447.46 billion in 2022-23, the number is now set to $444.4 billion, showing a growth of 5.3% over 2021-22. The import bill has also been reduced to $711.85 billion from $714.24 billion in the previous year, showing an increase of 16.1%. The trade deficit for the year widened by 40.8% to $267.45 billion, slightly higher than the 40% estimated earlier.

For February, merchandise exports have been revised upwards by around $3.1 billion to around $37 billion from the initial estimate of $33.9 billion. The import bill for the month rose to over $1.93 billion, the second-highest revision for a month, after a rise of $3.08 billion from the initial estimate for December.

For March, in contrast, exports were slashed by $3.03 billion to $35.35 billion from an initial estimate of $38.38 billion, translating into a year-on-year decline of 20.7%, with the value of outbound shipments roughly the same. is on the level. March 2021. Imports for the last month of 2022-23 have also been reduced by about $2.4 billion to $55.72 billion.

“Data revision of more than $500 million per month is not typical, but we are seeing significantly higher revisions in the last one-and-a-half years than in the prior period,” said Vivek Kumar, economist at Quantico Research. Hindu,

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Interestingly, the revision in export numbers is mainly influenced by changes in petroleum export figures, Mr. Kumar said. In contrast, the revision in core export items or segments such as gems and jewelery has been negligible.

He India’s oil import from Russia increased Ukraine may have been part of the trigger for the volatile petroleum trade numbers following the conflict. Mr. Kumar, however, pointed out that the sharp correction on the petroleum exports front had started four-five months ago. Russian invasion of Ukraine At the end of February 2022.

“This is very intriguing and adds to the uncertainty over the outlook for India’s current account deficit and thus the rupee. With an average monthly upward revision in the net trade deficit of up to $1.5 billion, the cumulative for the year could rise to $18 billion. Such a huge revision in the trade deficit data makes the analysis somewhat challenging,” said the economist.

“One would also appreciate a greater understanding of the triggers for higher data revisions in recent months and the context of the greater concentration of these revisions in the petroleum sector,” he stressed.