On top of the world: India’s most populous

India officially overtook China as the world’s most populous country on July 1 with a population of 1.428 billion compared to China’s 1.425 billion, said a United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) report released on Wednesday. Will leave But assuming continued population growth until July 1, India’s population would have surpassed that of China around mid-April. This is because India’s population is expected to grow by 0.7% in 2022, while China’s population peaked in that year and shrunk further. According to UN projections, which do not include China’s Macau and Hong Kong special administrative regions, India’s population will not peak until 2065.

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India’s emergence as the world’s most populous country gives it a demographic advantage that could drive economic growth for years to come. Experts said that with over 254 million youth and a median age of 28.4, India has a large pool of workers, consumers and innovators who can contribute significantly to economic expansion. However, this gain requires the creation of jobs, which remains the country’s biggest challenge.

Andrea Wojnar said, “The country will not only enjoy an abundant supply of labor from this working-age group, but rising domestic consumption will help the country weather any external shocks, a fact well understood during the COVID-19 pandemic.” has been displayed since. Representative of United Nations Population Fund India. “As the country with the largest youth population, its 254 million youth (15-24 years) can be a source of innovation, fresh thinking and sustainable solutions.”

Graphic: Mint

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Graphic: Mint

To be sure, India’s exact population is not easily known as the country has postponed its scheduled census for 2021 due to the pandemic. However, a registrar general of India report projected India’s population at 1.38 billion to be much lower than the United Nations’ projections for 2022.

The UNFPA report, titled “8 Billion Lives, Infinite Possibilities: The Case for Rights and Choice”, showed that more than two-thirds (68%) of India’s population will be of working age (15-64 years) in 2023 , which is an important one. Metric for assessing the economic growth potential of the largest seat of the global population. This figure was higher than the global average of 65%.

India ranks fifth among G20 countries on this count, behind only Saudi Arabia (71%), Brazil (70%), South Korea (70%), and China (69%). But include the population that will start working in the coming years (age group 0-15), and India ranks third among the world’s top economies. The old wonders of the Western economic world are set to walk into the sunset as their aging populations swell and fertility rates decline.

In fact, experts believe that India’s youth has placed it in a position of demographic advantage.

UNFPA estimates on the median age, the number that separates a population into two equal sizes, place the figure for India at 28.4 years. It will increase – but only to 38.1 years by 2050, which will be lower than the global average of 36.2 years in that year. The average Indian in 2050 will still be much smaller than the average citizen of Germany, France or the UK today.

Asia’s third-largest economy is also on track to become the world’s fastest-growing major economy this year, at a time when the global economy is widely expected to slow down.

While India’s large population should aid overall economic growth, it will also need to create jobs.

A public survey commissioned by UNFPA and conducted by YouGov asked a representative sample of 7,797 individuals from eight countries, including India, about their views on population issues. Most respondents said that the current world population was too large and the fertility rate too high. About 63% of the 1,007 Indian respondents to the survey expressed concern about the country’s economic condition due to possible changes in population.

According to UN projections for 2022, more than half of the projected increase in global population by 2050 will be concentrated in just eight countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, Tanzania and India.

India’s population has exceeded 1 billion since 1950 and is projected to touch 1.67 billion by 2050. India and China together account for more than a third of the world’s population. However, India’s population growth has also slowed down in recent decades.

“I see a rapid decline in fertility because the age of marriage is now rising in India. Also, the cost of living and the cost of childcare are rising. Because of this, from now on, a person can reduce fertility will play a very important role,” said DA Nagdev, professor at the International Institute of Population Sciences.

According to Poonam Muttreja, executive director of the Population Foundation of India, as India emerges as the world’s most populous country, the priority should be ensuring the availability of comprehensive and equitable services to people irrespective of their location or social class.

“We urgently need to ensure the education and skills of our young population are up to date,” Muttreja said.

A quarter of India’s population is in the 0-14 age group, and 7% are over 65, while China’s are 17% and 14%, respectively, indicating that China’s aging population is growing faster than India’s. Has been

“India will inevitably see the same fate some day. Governments should plan health care for the aged population, as their share will increase,” Nagdev said. “We should plan for more institutional care as the concept of family is diminishing in India.”

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