New Delhi: After losing power in Himachal Pradesh, the defeat in Karnataka is a major blow for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in an election year that will also see elections in other big states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Telangana.
The major impact is a dent in the BJP’s southern ambitions as the party seeks to expand its footprint in states like Telangana, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. Karnataka was the only southern state where he was in power.
Losing one of India’s most prosperous states will be bitter for the BJP ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections as 25 of the total 28 parliamentary seats have MPs as well as one independent supported by the party.
Despite Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s hectic campaigning in Karnataka to counter the anti-incumbency wave against the Basavaraj Bommai government and all his efforts to turn local state elections into personality-based national elections, defeat was clear.
Though BJP’s vote share remained more or less the same, the reason for its defeat in Karnataka cannot be pinned down to one factor alone.
“Karnataka results are disappointing for the BJP, but it shows that regionalism prevails over nationalism. Regional politics of caste, regional aspiration is strong but it will not affect other states as our track record is unmatched. PM’s popularity is increasing continuously.
Corruption and anti-incumbency wave
Unlike other BJP-ruled states like Gujarat, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh and even Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka was an exception as corruption had become a major stumbling block for the party.
The Congress’s 40 per cent commission government campaign tarnished the image of the BJP government, but Bommai somehow did not take steps to root out the problems.
After Santosh Patil, a contractor who accused Rural Development Minister KS Eshwarappa of corruption, was found dead in April last year, the BJP leader was asked to resign, but the party took steps to address the corruption allegation and fight negativity. For optics not used. Story against it.
Law Minister J.C. An audio clip of Madhuswamy – who reportedly said that the government was not working and the BJP was just managing things till the 2023 elections – further exposed the incompetence of the Bommai government.
Bommai did not project himself as an outspoken chief minister in fighting corruption or taking his cabinet colleagues along. Even when the Congress campaigned on corruption, he merely termed it as “dirty politics”.
Karnataka Contractors’ Association’s attack against Horticulture Minister Munirathna only gave more ammunition to the Congress, which launched the PayCM campaign in a direct attack on Bommai. Though the BJP launched ‘Scam Ramaiya’ in September last year, it was too late to undo the damage.
indifferent state leadership
Ahead of the elections in 2018, the BJP announced Lingayat strongman BS Yeddyurappa as its chief ministerial candidate almost a year ago, while the central leadership complemented the Karnataka unit’s campaign.
In contrast this year, the central leadership took over all aspects of the campaign with Bommai saying that the BJP would fight the elections under the collective leadership of the party. Nor was he declared the face of the party.
BJP leaders first undermined Yeddyurappa by repeatedly calling him for cabinet expansion, which happened later with Bommai. Yeddyurappa was removed from the CM’s chair in 2021, while the leadership was well aware that he was the only popular mass leader in Karnataka.
The party then realized its mistake and appointed Yediyurappa to the parliamentary board in August last year. Correction in PM Narendra Modi holding up his hand while inaugurating the Shimoga airport for shutterbugs in February 2024. Modi further cleared all the contestants suggested by Yediyurappa and did not listen to suggestions from senior leader BL Santhosh.
Yediyurappa and his son BY Vijayendra campaigned extensively, but Modi got a bigger space than the former chief minister throughout the campaign. Many voters argued that the BJP had made a big mistake by removing Yeddyurappa from the post of CMO.
In contrast, Congress’s Siddaramaiah enjoys huge popularity like Yediyurappa. The party also focused more on inflation, cylinder prices and local issues.
Unlike Uttarakhand, where two CMs were changed, and Gujarat, where not only Chief Minister Vijay Rupani and Deputy Nitin Patel, but also the entire structure of the state unit was changed, the BJP did not perform any major ‘surgery’ in Karnataka. Only two dozen sitting MLAs were denied tickets and the state president was not changed. Barring a few like KS Eshwarappa, tickets were given to most dynasties.
After the result went against the party, a BJP functionary in Delhi admitted that Bommai was no match for Yediyurappa as leader.
“When Yediyurappa was dropped to bring about a generational change, Bommai was brought in on Yediyurappa’s suggestion because of his mild demeanor and good chemistry with him. But he was no match for Yediyurappa. But no more changes were made like other states… We did not remove the state president, many sitting MLAs. …The insult of Yeddyurappa did not go down well in the pockets of Lingayats. Voters thought that if he is not in an influential position then why vote for BJP.
Local Elections vs Central Elections
The BJP’s plan to capitalize on the popularity of the prime minister did not work in Karnataka as it was not backed by an inspiring leadership or a strong campaign narrative.
As the Congress waged an election battle on local issues like costlier LPG cylinders, price hike, corruption, the BJP tried to spin the election around Modi, his leadership and popularity, and the double engine government. Even most of the public works cited during the election campaign were of the central government and not of Bommai and Yediyurappa.
The Modi magic did not work as the government’s image was tarnished by the relentless campaign of the Congress. After ticket distribution, the mutual discord became even more serious.
In such a situation, the BJP understood that the only way out was to divert the public’s attention from local issues. It tried to capitalize on the Congress manifesto to carve out Lord Hanuman, but Karnataka voters saw through the tactic and chastised the BJP for not addressing local issues of governance.
“Knowing the extent of anti-incumbency in the state, our best strategy was to turn the election around the national narrative to beat anti-incumbency. From the very beginning, we were getting to see a very dismal picture of the state, but it was the Prime Minister who bridged the gap. (But) this time the gap was wider and the narrative was against us,” a senior Karnataka minister told ThePrint.
The unfavorable results also showed the extent of the Modi factor in states like Jharkhand and Delhi that have strong leaders like Hemant Soren and Arvind Kejriwal.
A Karnataka minister said the Congress campaign was focused on local issues.
“…we ignored local issues and believed that once the Prime Minister campaigns, he will change everything. But people were more concerned about development, price guarantee and livelihood. The resonance of the guarantees of the Congress increased. Since we were facing backlash on the issue of governance, people did not trust our promises,” the minister told ThePrint, adding that the narrative was changed from Hijab to Tipu Sultan to divert attention from anti-incumbency. was given.
“…we found that we are still not gaining traction and then moved on to the issue of development, but we kept citing the record of the central government. We did not mention the work of Yediyurappa and Bommai. We felt that banning Bajrang Dal would polarize voters. There were major flaws in our campaign strategy. We did not effectively take on the Congress on corruption and present our solutions on local issues.
Political analyst SY Surendra told ThePrint that the BJP campaign did not match the ground reality. “They (BJP leaders) were thinking that voters would vote in the name of Modi. The party did not respond to the local crisis on the ground. He belittled Yeddyurappa’s widely accepted leadership. All this went against the BJP.
Reservation change didn’t work
As the hijab and Tipu Sultan controversies were not getting the traction it was hoping for, the Bommai government used its most powerful weapon by revamping the reservation matrix to reap electoral benefits.
In 2005, the then Congress-Janata Dal (Secular) government appointed a commission to examine the equitable distribution of reservation benefits among Scheduled Castes. Its report was never presented in the assembly.
The Basavaraj Bommai government had constituted a five-member cabinet sub-committee on internal reservation in December last year. Then, on March 23, the government announced new reservation policy It gave additional quota to Lingayats and Vokkaligas.
But the last-minute decision didn’t work out the way the party was hoping. Dalit mobilization took place in favor of the Congress in many areas of Karnataka. Kurubas rallied in favor of Siddaramaiah, while Dalits – who were facing livelihood issues – supported the Congress in their bastions.
The consolidation of Dalit, Adivasi and Vokkaliga votes for the Congress in north Karnataka cornered the BJP in its stronghold of the Lingayat belt. Even BJP’s efforts to garner votes in Old Mysore did not gain momentum as JD(S) votes shifted towards Congress.
According to party insiders, senior leader Amit Shah had asked the state leadership to focus on Old Mysore, but by then it was too late. The BJP’s Vokkaliga push also did not work in the absence of any face from the community in the Old Mysore region.
Women’s support for BJP declined
Unlike states like Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat and Assam, the beneficiaries of various central schemes did not fully support the Bommai government. The distribution component was not as smooth as in other BJP ruled states.
The people facing difficulties and getting impatient did not accept BJP’s promise of double engine government. They were more attracted to the cash component offered by the Congress’ five guarantees in Yuva Nidhi, Anna Bhagya, Griha Jyoti, Prachika Prayana and Griha Lakshmi.
While Upchira Prayana proposes free travel for women in regular government buses, Griha Jyoti promises 200 units of free electricity a month to all households. Under Griha Lakshmi, each female head of the household will receive a monthly assistance of Rs 2,000.
Under the Yuva Nidhi, a monthly assistance of Rs 3,000 will be given to all unemployed graduates and Rs 1,500 to all unemployed diploma graduates (both in the age group of 18 to 25 years) for two years. Under Anna Bhagya each person of BPL family will get 10 kg food grains every month.
Even though BJP advertises highlighting its track record achieved through Swachh Bharat, Ayush Bharat and Kisan Samman Nidhi, women suffer the most due to hike in LPG cylinders, food grains and essential commodities and electricity tariffs It was lying
(Edited by Tony Rae)