The data doesn’t lie: how India has to bridge the widening numbers gap with the NDA. A look at the results of 2019 – News18

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi said that the 2024 Lok Sabha elections will be a fight between India and the NDA. (Image: Twitter/File)

In 2019, the NDA won 241 seats, while India won 68 seats, when both parties got 50% of the vote. The opposition alliance needs to bridge the gap of 173. When it comes to victory candidates get 35% to 40% votes, India is ahead of NDA with 88 seats while NDA won 35 seats but this difference is very less.

Beyond abbreviations and acronyms, what matters is the hard data. As the dust settles on the two big opposition meetings, it is time to look at some statistics from the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Will the hyped India bridge the gap with the NDA? Getting started doesn’t seem that easy.

NDA is better at winning seats on the basis of votes polled

News18 analyzed 2019 Lok Sabha data to find winners for both the parties with 50 per cent votes. In other words, it should signal a decisive victory and accordingly, the NDA won 241 such parliamentary seats, while India won just 68. The opposition alliance needs to bridge the gap of 173 in the 2024 elections.

In terms of winners getting more than 70 percent of the vote, which should mean a landslide victory, the NDA had five seats while India did not get a single seat. When it comes to winning, candidates getting 35 percent to 40 percent of the vote, India is ahead of the NDA. New alliance candidates won 88 such seats, while NDA candidates won 35. However, this difference of 53 is less than the difference of 173.

India lost more deposits

Losing a deposit in an election is a big loss not only for the candidates but also for the political party from which they have been fielded. Here, if less than 16.66 percent of the votes are received, the deposit is lost. According to the 2019 Lok Sabha election data, India had 422 such candidates as against 130 for the NDA.

This is a range where the lower the number, the better. The difference of such 292 candidates is in the advantage of NDA. But it is important to note that this data does not include the losing candidates of NCP and Shiv Sena as their current affiliation is not yet known.

seats with low margin of victory

As far as this data is concerned, both NDA and India are almost at par. When it comes to winning seats with a victory margin of less than 2 per cent, it is a close contest between the two – NDA’s 10 versus India’s nine. When it comes to seats won with a victory margin of less than 5 per cent, the NDA won 24 seats, while India won 15. Simply put, a change here and there could make these 58 seats a game for anyone next year, and no one can be satisfied.

Both are equal when it comes to women candidates

The performance of both the alliances was not very good in terms of giving tickets to women. While the NDA had 11.09 per cent women candidates in 2019, Indian parties fielded 13.24 per cent. But, this data does not include the candidates who lost once again from NCP and Shiv Sena.

Meanwhile, the NDA had 13.51 per cent victorious women candidates, compared to 13.28 per cent in India – a much smaller difference.

young blood, old hands

When it comes to giving opportunities to young people, India is slightly better than the NDA if the 2019 Lok Sabha figures are taken into account. The new alliance had 20.4 per cent candidates under the age of 40, while the NDA had 11.26 per cent candidates in the same category.

Similarly, when it comes to giving tickets to old people, India gave more preference to NDA as 8.87 per cent candidates were above 70 years of age. Talking about NDA, there were 2.56 percent candidates in this category. This data once again excludes the losing candidates of NCP and Shiv Sena.

So who’s next?

When it comes to performance in elections, data related to age or demographics does not have the same importance as voting percentage and margin of victory. Whereas, NDA is far ahead of India.

For example, India needs to bridge the gap of 173 seats when it comes to the winners getting 50 per cent of the vote, and that is definitely not an easy task with less than a year left for the election. Is. While even a week is a long time in politics; The NDA appears to be in far greater control than India, which knows the goal but is clueless about how to get there.