Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath during the foundation stone laying and inauguration ceremony of various developmental projects, in Azamgarh. (Image: PTI)
With the Samajwadi Party playing the PDA (‘Pichda Dalit and Alpsankhyak’) card, what needs to be seen is whether ‘Modi ki Guarantee’ promises BJP’s victory in the Azamgarh Lok Sabha constituency
Will Narendra Modi guarantee BJP’s victory in the crucial Azamgarh Lok Sabha constituency? Considered to be the stronghold of Samajwadi Party, the Azamgarh seat was held by party supremo late Mulayam Singh in 2014 and then by his son and current party president Akhilesh in 2019.
In the 2022 by-polls, BJP candidate Dinesh Lal Yadav aka Nirahua won the seat defeating SP’s Dharmendra Yadav. The bypoll was necessitated after Akhilesh Yadav resigned from the seat after winning from Karhal constituency in Mainpuri district in the 2022 state assembly polls.
Though both the parties have stepped up their electioneering at the ground level, political analysts say Azamgarh will be a tough constituency for the BJP to make ‘Modi Magic’ work.
Prime Minister Modi visited Azamgarh for the fourth time on March 10 and inaugurated the development projects worth Rs 34,000 crore and greeted the crowd in Bhojpuri. He sloganeered BJP’s ‘Ab Ki Baar 400 Paar’ refrain to the crowd, considering the state of Uttar Pradesh draws the largest number of MPs to Parliament, that is, around 80.
The PM had earlier visited Azamgarh in 2014, 2018 and 2019.
Besides the Azamgarh seat, Lalganj is another key Lok Sabha constituency for the BJP for which it has fielded Neelam Sonkar while the SP has nominated Daroga Saroj.
The Azamgarh Lok Sabha seat remained with Congress from 1952 to 1971. In the 1977 Lok Sabha Polls, however, the Janata Party won the seat, which was re-claimed by Congress in 1978. In 1980, the Janata Party again won Azamgarh after which Congress bagged it in 1984.
In 1989, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) came into the picture but the Janata Dal again won Azamgarh in 1991. But in 1996, the SP won the seat but BSP re-claimed it in 1998. It was won again by SP in 1999 but the BSP held it from 2004 to 2008. In 2009, a BJP candidate was declared winner from the seat for the first time. However, the SP re-claimed it again in 2014 and 2019. The BJP, however, managed to win the seat in the 2022 by-elections.
Highlighting the history of the Azamgarh Lok Sabha seat, Shashikant Pandey, head of Political Science department at Bhimrao Ambedkar University, Lucknow, said, “Going by the records, the BJP won Azamgarh only twice, first in 2009 and second in 2022 by-polls. And when it comes to Lalganj, the BJP has won the seat only once, in 2014. In 1991, even when the Ram temple movement was at its peak, the BJP candidate Janardan Singh lost the seat to Janata Dal’s candidate Chandrajeet Yadav. Similarly, in 2014, amidst the Modi wave, the BJP managed to win only Lalganj and lost Azamgarh to Mulayam Singh. In 2019 Lok Sabha Polls, BJP lost Azamgarh to Akhilesh Yadav and Lalganj to BSP candidate Sangeeta Azad”.
But what factors have led to BJP repeated defeat in Azamgarh? Pandey cited the caste calculations. The region is spread across 4,054 sq km, and has a population of 46 lakh, of which, Muslims, Yadavs and Dalits account for more than 25 lakh while 5 lakh belong to the Other Backward Caste (OBC), who have remained loyal to their leaders.
After Independence, OBCs and Muslims remained the vote bank of Congress and Janta Dal until Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mayawati emerged as the leaders of Dalit and OBC politics. “This is the reason why BJP remained out of context in Azamgarh,” he explained.
Now, with SP playing the PDA (Pichda Dalit and Alpsankhyak) card and is looking forward to securing its seats, the question arises will ‘Modi ki Guarantee’ promises BJP’s victory in the Azamgarh Lok Sabha constituency?