Paris: After the announcement of the US killed five months later al QaedaLeader of Ayman al-Zawahiri in Afghanistan, the global jihadist group still has not confirmed his death or announced a new owner.
In early August, US President Joe Biden said US armed forces fired two missiles from a drone flying over the Afghan capital, striking al-Zawahiri’s safe house and killing him.
But the group’s propaganda arms have continued to circulate undated audio or video messages from the bearded Egyptian ideologue, who led the group after US special forces killed its charismatic founder in 2011. Osama bin Laden in Pakistan.
“It’s really bizarre,” said Hans-Jakob Schindler, director of the Counter-Extremism Project think tank.
“A network only works with a leader. You need one person around whom everything is aligned.”
Almost all options remain open.
“It certainly may be the case that the United States is wrong about his death,” researchers Raffaello Pantucci and Kabir Taneja wrote on the Lawfair website in early December.
But “judging by the confidence with which President Biden has spoken publicly about the strike, this does not appear to be the case.”
Another possibility is that the group has failed to make contact so far. jewelerHis most likely successor, his former number two, who goes by the nom de guerre Sayf al-Adl or “Sword of Justice”.
A former Egyptian special forces lieutenant-colonel who turned to jihadism in the 1980s, he is believed by observers to be in Iran.
The Islamic republic’s Shiite ruler officially opposes Sunni al-Qaeda, but opponents have repeatedly accused Iran of collaborating with the network and harboring its leaders.
For Schindler, Saif al-Adl is “a liability but also an asset to the Iranian regime”.
According to its interests, Tehran could decide to hand him over to the United States, or allow him to attack the West.
Pantuchi and Taneja suggested that al-Qaeda may also have remained silent about Zawahiri’s death under pressure from the Taliban.
The group issued a carefully worded statement in August, neither confirming Zawahiri’s presence in Afghanistan nor acknowledging his death.
He added, “His decision not to comment may be part of his efforts to manage his delicate but deep relationship with al-Qaeda, as well as the foreign terrorist group’s presence in direct violation of his agreement with the United States.” But attention should also be avoided.”
Saif al-Adl may also be dead or in hiding to avoid the fate of his predecessor or the two last leaders of the network’s main rival Islamic State group, who were also killed last year.
After taking over the network, Zawahiri did not seek to emulate bin Laden’s charisma and influence, but was instrumental in decentralizing the group.
Al-Qaeda today is a far cry from the group that carried out the September 11, 2001 attacks against the United States.
It now has autonomous franchises spread across the Middle East, Africa and Southeast Asia that are far less dependent on a central command than before in terms of operations, funding and strategy.
Barak Mendelsohn, a US-based al-Qaeda expert, said it was difficult to tell why the group was taking time to announce a new leader, adding that the delay was not “very consequential”.
“Ultimately the wait shows the limited importance of al-Qaeda Central,” he added.
“It is a symbol of uniting groups across borders, but has little operational relevance.”
Al-Qaeda’s arch-enemy Islamic State has faced similar difficulties filling out its leadership since its “caliph” Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi killed himself during a US raid in Syria in 2019.
After two of his successors were killed last year, this autumn it elected a relative unknown as its new chief, who claims heritage from the Prophet’s Quraysh tribe to boost his legitimacy.
Torey Hamming, a fellow at the International Center for the Study of Radicalization, said that it is not necessary for al-Qaeda to have a symbolic leader to speak in its name.
“We’ve seen with the Islamic State (group) since 2019, it’s not necessary,” he said.
IS elected the new caliph, but “no one knew who he was and never heard from him. Yet the allies remained loyal,” he explained.
“It could be the same for al-Qaeda, just with a council of senior individuals taking on the role of an emir,” or leader.
In early August, US President Joe Biden said US armed forces fired two missiles from a drone flying over the Afghan capital, striking al-Zawahiri’s safe house and killing him.
But the group’s propaganda arms have continued to circulate undated audio or video messages from the bearded Egyptian ideologue, who led the group after US special forces killed its charismatic founder in 2011. Osama bin Laden in Pakistan.
“It’s really bizarre,” said Hans-Jakob Schindler, director of the Counter-Extremism Project think tank.
“A network only works with a leader. You need one person around whom everything is aligned.”
Almost all options remain open.
“It certainly may be the case that the United States is wrong about his death,” researchers Raffaello Pantucci and Kabir Taneja wrote on the Lawfair website in early December.
But “judging by the confidence with which President Biden has spoken publicly about the strike, this does not appear to be the case.”
Another possibility is that the group has failed to make contact so far. jewelerHis most likely successor, his former number two, who goes by the nom de guerre Sayf al-Adl or “Sword of Justice”.
A former Egyptian special forces lieutenant-colonel who turned to jihadism in the 1980s, he is believed by observers to be in Iran.
The Islamic republic’s Shiite ruler officially opposes Sunni al-Qaeda, but opponents have repeatedly accused Iran of collaborating with the network and harboring its leaders.
For Schindler, Saif al-Adl is “a liability but also an asset to the Iranian regime”.
According to its interests, Tehran could decide to hand him over to the United States, or allow him to attack the West.
Pantuchi and Taneja suggested that al-Qaeda may also have remained silent about Zawahiri’s death under pressure from the Taliban.
The group issued a carefully worded statement in August, neither confirming Zawahiri’s presence in Afghanistan nor acknowledging his death.
He added, “His decision not to comment may be part of his efforts to manage his delicate but deep relationship with al-Qaeda, as well as the foreign terrorist group’s presence in direct violation of his agreement with the United States.” But attention should also be avoided.”
Saif al-Adl may also be dead or in hiding to avoid the fate of his predecessor or the two last leaders of the network’s main rival Islamic State group, who were also killed last year.
After taking over the network, Zawahiri did not seek to emulate bin Laden’s charisma and influence, but was instrumental in decentralizing the group.
Al-Qaeda today is a far cry from the group that carried out the September 11, 2001 attacks against the United States.
It now has autonomous franchises spread across the Middle East, Africa and Southeast Asia that are far less dependent on a central command than before in terms of operations, funding and strategy.
Barak Mendelsohn, a US-based al-Qaeda expert, said it was difficult to tell why the group was taking time to announce a new leader, adding that the delay was not “very consequential”.
“Ultimately the wait shows the limited importance of al-Qaeda Central,” he added.
“It is a symbol of uniting groups across borders, but has little operational relevance.”
Al-Qaeda’s arch-enemy Islamic State has faced similar difficulties filling out its leadership since its “caliph” Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi killed himself during a US raid in Syria in 2019.
After two of his successors were killed last year, this autumn it elected a relative unknown as its new chief, who claims heritage from the Prophet’s Quraysh tribe to boost his legitimacy.
Torey Hamming, a fellow at the International Center for the Study of Radicalization, said that it is not necessary for al-Qaeda to have a symbolic leader to speak in its name.
“We’ve seen with the Islamic State (group) since 2019, it’s not necessary,” he said.
IS elected the new caliph, but “no one knew who he was and never heard from him. Yet the allies remained loyal,” he explained.
“It could be the same for al-Qaeda, just with a council of senior individuals taking on the role of an emir,” or leader.