Analysis of BJP’s defeat in Karnataka elections: Hindutva and dependence on Modi in states is not enough, problems increased due to lack of big local leader

With the defeat in Karnataka, the foundation of BJP’s Mission South has cracked. The share of 5 southern states (Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra and Telangana) in the country’s politics is around 22-24%. South India has about 900 assembly seats and 130 Lok Sabha seats.

The BJP currently has 29 MPs from the south and has set a target of winning 60 Lok Sabha seats this time. But the biggest challenge for the BJP in this way is the absence of any strong local leader in the south. Karnataka has the only strong leader in the form of Yeddyurappa, but he too has retired from active politics.

In Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra, Puducherry, due to not having established or miraculous leader, BJP’s difficulties are increasing for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.

Talking about the Hindutva and Modi factor, Gujarat, Haryana, UP, Uttarakhand and the Northeast benefited from it, but it did not work in Bengal, Jharkhand, Odisha, Bihar, Punjab, Delhi, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Andhra and Himachal. . The main reason for this is also that the local leadership remained strong in the states that won.

A senior BJP leader also admits that where there is apprehension about the local leadership, the performance tends to be poor.

The loss of confidence of the core vote bank has been a setback for the BJP. 6 questions to analyze what was the reason behind this…

1. Where are the BJP-Congress standing in the southern states now?
Of the total Lok Sabha seats, India’s 5 states (Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra and Telangana) account for about 24%. Out of 130 Lok Sabha seats, BJP has 29 and Congress has 27. The rest is occupied by regional parties. In terms of vote share, the per state average of the BJP in the South is 18.64% and that of the Congress is 22.72%.

2. What is the impact of the results on the Lok Sabha seats in Karnataka?
Election Commission figures show that if the results of Karnataka are calculated on the basis of Lok Sabha seats, then the BJP may lose 18 Lok Sabha seats there. Although voting is held on different issues in the Lok Sabha and Vidhansabha elections, the huge margin by which the BJP lost in many seats can raise the party’s concern.

3. What was the main reason for the failure of BJP’s strategy?
The BJP has always had tremendous faith in its core vote bank. But the BJP’s core vote bank (Lingayats) broke down in Karnataka. In Kittur Karnataka (Mumbai-Karnataka) where Lingayats are in good numbers, the BJP has suffered a major setback and has lost several seats.

Sources say that a quick analysis of the reason for the defeat in Karnataka has revealed the fact that till now the BJP has been gaining in the triangular contest, but this trend has been broken in Karnataka. Because in the southern states, the Congress is in a very strong position in Karnataka and Kerala.

4. What was the result of the exercise of caste equation?
The Central and Karnataka governments have been claiming themselves dedicated to the welfare of the Dalit, OBC, Tribal communities, but the BJP has not benefited much from this in Karnataka. The issue of giving 2-2% reservation to Mandals (Vokkaliggas and Lingayats) did not work in the Karnataka elections. Also the issue of Kamandal (Bajrangbali) did not click. The only political weapon with the BJP for Mission Dakshin is the one whose edge has become blunt here.

5. How can these results benefit the Congress?
Sealing the leadership of the new Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge has brought great relief to the party. The effect of this will be that the party will emerge with more confidence in the upcoming assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh.

On the other hand, after this election result, if the BJP does not remove the confusion regarding the leadership in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, then the party may suffer losses. On the contrary, apart from these two, the Congress does not have confusion about the leadership in Chhattisgarh as well, which can benefit it.

After the victory in Karnataka, party president Mallikarjun Kharge and other leaders showed solidarity by raising hands with each other.

6. Where did the planning done for minorities go wrong?
Through Sneh Milan and other programmes, the BJP was trying to make inroads among the minorities (Muslims). Last year, the party had also passed its proposal in the National Executive of Hyderabad. Despite this, the results of the Karnataka elections prove that not only has the BJP remained an untouchable for the minorities, but the minorities are unitedly voting against the BJP.