Brazil’s foreign policy is hyperactive, ambitious and naïve

Like his first two terms in office, between 2003 and 2010, Lula wants Brazil to have a seat at the table on the most vexing issues of the day. His ambitions should be taken seriously. As president in the early 2000s, Lula outlined a pragmatic, independent diplomacy bent on advancing Brazilian interests and creating a “multipolar” world in a time of American hegemony. He helped found BRICS, a grouping of emerging economies that included Russia, India, China and South Africa, and upset the United States by striking a deal on Iran’s nuclear program with Turkey, which allowed Iran to halt its program. Would have allowed enriched uranium to be shipped to Turkey instead of closing it.

Yet while Lula’s international ambitions remain the same, Brazil and the world have changed Since he was the last one in office. Brazil is more polarized and Lula’s domestic support has waned – he won last year’s election by a 1.8 percentage-point margin, the narrowest victory since Brazil’s return to democracy in 1989. China is no longer an emerging market but a world power. War has broken out in Europe and human rights violations have worsened in Latin America. All this has increased the cost of being chicken with everyone. In Lula’s third term, Brazil’s commitment to non-alignment will be tested like never before. By trying too hard to play global peacemaker, Lula risks appearing naïve like an elder statesman.

In many ways, Lula’s proactive diplomacy represents a continuation of the Brazilian tradition. Brazil has one-third of Latin America’s population and almost the same share of its GDP. It fought alongside the Allies in both World Wars and has long fought for a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council. Its mediation in local conflicts has helped make South America the region with the fewest interstate wars. The 1988 constitution states that foreign policy should be based on non-intervention, peaceful resolution of conflicts, and “equality among states”.

Brazil’s foreign policy suffered under Lula’s protégé, Dilma Rousseff, who succeeded her as president, and her successor, Michel Temer, who turned inward after Ms. Rousseff’s economic mismanagement led to the 2010 coup. There was a deep recession in the middle of Jair Bolsonaro, a right-wing populist who was president from 2019 to 2022, aggravated cases, He bashed China and limited his foreign visits mostly to other nationalists, such as Donald Trump. His enthusiastic support for deforestation made Brazil an international pariah. Lula seeks to rectify this legacy by building good relations with the United States and China, making peace in Ukraine, and protecting the Amazon rainforest.

Lula’s first balancing act would manage the rivalry between the United States and China. Lula’s Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira has said that there will be no “automatic alignment” in Brazil. In their meeting, Lula and President Biden focused on democratic values, human rights and the environment. He linked his similar experiences with the rebels. (Mr. Bolsonaro’s) supporters attacked government buildings in January, as did some supporters of Mr. Trump in January 2021.) Still, although officials say the trip was a success, the outcome was underwhelming. The United States indicated its intention to donate $50 million to the Amazon Fund, a billion-dollar mechanism to reduce deforestation. Germany has recently promised to more than quadruple that.

where’s the beef?

In contrast, the agenda with China is more “concrete, detailed and far-reaching”, says Sergio Amaral, Brazil’s former ambassador to the United States. The visit, originally scheduled for March, was postponed after Lula contracted pneumonia. A delegation of five ministers, dozens of legislators and 240 business representatives were included. There were signs of goodwill before the original visit. This comes days before China lifted a ban on Brazilian beef, which was put in place a month ago following a case of mad-cow disease. was discovered in Brazil. Under Mr Bolsonaro, a similar ban took three months to lift. The Brazilian government is taking steps to allow trade to settle in the renminbi, China’s currency. It has also indicated that it may sign up for China’s Belt and China Belt. Road Initiative, an infrastructure programme.

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More than 20 agreements are expected to be signed on the rescheduled visit, ranging from investment in renewable energy to cooperation on science and technology. Brazil’s Environment Minister Marina Silva told The Economist that it is a priority to seek investment in the renewable energy sector, particularly in green hydrogen, a fuel that can be made using solar and wind power. Another closely watched area will be satellites. This may deter the United States, which is concerned that they could be used to monitor military activity.

Most of the agreements will be on food items. A third of the business representatives in the original delegation – many of whom arrived before Lula postponed his first trip – came from the agricultural sector. Marcio Rodrigues, head of exports at meat-packing giant Masterboi, was in Beijing in March. He says that “the Chinese were very receptive” and points out that, despite Lula’s absence, several beef, pork, and chicken companies obtained licenses to export to China. , In November, China opened its market to Brazilian corn. It is now set to rival the United States as the world’s biggest exporter of the goods. Rice and some kind of fruit like grapes and limes may be next.

The importance of the agribusiness delegation reflects the nature of the relationship, which is based on the export of Brazilian goods. China overtook the United States to become Brazil’s largest trading partner in 2009. Today it imports about two-thirds of its soybeans, two-fifths of its beef and a fifth of its iron ore from Brazil. Yet the United States remains by far the largest investor in terms of FDI. According to Brazil’s Central Bank, it attracted $124 billion in investments in Brazil in 2020, compared to only $23 billion from China. Meanwhile, much of what Brazil exports to the United States is of high value, including planes and steel. “We depend on both countries,” says Davison Bellum Lopes of the Federal University of Minas Gerais. Deepening trade with China is unlikely to bother the United States.

However, Lula may alienate Brazil’s partners in his ambition to become a global peacemaker. His earlier efforts to strike a deal on Iran upset the United States. Looks like Lula has learned her lesson. His proposal to set up a “peace club” to end the war in Ukraine angered both the West, who believe Lula has been too soft on Russia, and Xi Jinping, who has introduced his own plan.

So far, Lula’s non-alignment efforts appear to have been one-sided. Although Brazil voted at the United Nations to condemn Russia for invading Ukraine, Lula has said that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is “as much responsible for the war as Putin”. In January he reiterated this point after rejecting Germany’s request to send ammunition to Ukraine: “I still think that when one does not fight, two will not fight.”

He has since softened his language. On 6 April he admitted that Russia “cannot keep” the Ukrainian territory it has occupied since 2022, although he suggested that Ukraine might have to surrender Crimea. Yet, when Lula’s top foreign-policy adviser, Celso Amorim, traveled to Europe in March to meet Mr. Putin but not to Ukraine. The most Lula has done on Skype with Mr. Zelensky. Brazil wants to be friendly with Russia because it is a partner in BRICS, and because it supplies a quarter of Brazil’s fertilizers.

Bruna Santos of the Wilson Center, a US think-tank, says, “If you want to be taken seriously in talks to de-escalate this conflict, you have to visit both sides and see the damage Russia is doing in Ukraine.” , must see him.” , Lula runs the risk of appearing naïve. Brazil lacks the geopolitical clout to get Ukraine or Russia to stick to the terms of the deal, says Oliver Stuenkel of the Getulio Vargas Foundation, a university. “There is still a perception that the worst that could happen is that Brazil’s peace initiative is yet to have the desired effect. But there is in fact a risk that it could undermine Brazil’s ties with Europe and the United States,

Brazil has a better chance of arbitrating closer to home. “Improving our relations with our neighbors is probably the best way for Brazil to deserve a greater role in the world,” says Ambassador Amaral. Venezuelan protests ahead of next year’s presidential election. Since returning to power, Lula has revived moribund discussions on regional cooperation, and is pushing for a deal between the European Union and Mercosur, a trade bloc made up of Argentina, Brazil. Uruguay, and Paraguay, are due to ratify this year. Where he may struggle to be an honest broker is in Nicaragua, which is ruled by a dictator, Daniel Ortega. Lula has compared Mr. Ortega’s 16-year rule, consolidated by persecuting rivals, to Angela Merkel’s democratic tenure of a similar length in Germany, which he would hardly like for the Nicaraguan opposition.

Brazil will have a chance to play a leading role climate change policy, Lula is pushing to host COP30, an environmental pow-wow, in 2025, and is seeking to reactivate the Amazon Pact, a 1978 treaty that brought together eight countries that share the rainforest Is. According to the Rainforest Foundation, a charity, Brazil is the most forested and biodiverse country on Earth. The annual rate of deforestation in the Amazon dropped by 80% between 2004 and 2012 thanks to tough laws promoted by Ms Silva, Lula’s climate czar at the time. She has now returned to her old job. All of this means that Brazil is already a global power on one of the most important issues for the future of humanity. Lula’s legacy may be better served by spending his energy in areas where Brazil has dominance, such as the environment, rather than on grand political topics where it has little or none.

© 2023, The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved. From The Economist, published under license. Original content can be found at www.economist.com

Updated: June 14, 2023, 12:59 PM IST