Khan’s ability to connect with the outside world and martial support is already eroding.
Imran Khan, holed up in his fortified home in Lahore’s upmarket Zaman Park, looks increasingly surrounded and isolated as Pakistan’s military carries out a sweeping crackdown against the former prime minister’s political party.
More than 10,000 people linked to Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, or Movement for Justice, were arrested following unprecedented attacks on army-owned properties and widespread protests after Khan was briefly jailed earlier this month. Arrested in police raid. Several prominent leaders are now in jail and more than two dozen PTI stalwarts have quit the party this week.
Publicly the army and government say they are holding accountable anyone who attacks state-owned property. Behind the scenes, however, there is a recognition that Khan’s popularity is unmatched and that his party must be cut down to size ahead of elections in October, according to two people familiar with the military’s thinking.
Khan now risks meeting the same fate as previous prime ministers, who have been jailed, exiled or executed after power struggles with Pakistan’s generals. Although the military’s support was widely credited with bringing Khan to office in the last national election in 2018, his current predicament stems from his attempts to meddle with the military hierarchy – one of Pakistan’s most powerful institutions. The Red Line, which directly controls the nuclear-armed nation. for most of its post-independence history.
“For now, this is the end of the road for Imran Khan,” said Ayesha Siddiqa, senior fellow at King’s College London and an expert on the Pakistani military. “The question is, will they be able to take away his support base?”
Khan’s ability to connect with the outside world and martial support is already eroding. On Wednesday, the internet at his Lahore residence was abruptly cut off ahead of a scheduled call with British MPs concerned about Pakistan’s deteriorating political, economic and security situation. Khan’s close aide Zulfi Bukhari told Bloomberg News that police have also impounded most of his armored cars, limiting his movements.
On Friday, a news report said that Khan and his wife had been placed on a no-fly list and were barred from leaving the country. The former prime minister survived an assassination attempt late last year.
Pakistan’s military did not respond to a request for comment.
Since stepping down as prime minister following a parliamentary no-confidence vote last year, Khan has campaigned relentlessly for new elections. He has criticized the burgeoning coalition led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif – who is seen as more amenable to the military, even though his brother was once ousted in a coup – as a corrupting force of selfish dynastic parties.
Khan’s charismatic, every-man quality, previous cricket victories and recent adoption of the pious religion – despite his aristocratic upbringing and earlier playboy lifestyle – have increased his popularity in Pakistani society, with many rank-and-file members of the military are also included. An opinion poll published by Gallup earlier this year found that Khan’s approval rating rose to 61% in February from 36% in January last year, while Sharif’s fell to 32% from 51% during that time.
It’s a big dilemma for military brass. According to Tim Wilsey-Wilsey, a senior associate at the Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies in London, Khan would win the election by a landslide, with no “credible alternative” to support the military.
With Pakistan’s more than 240 million people grappling with record inflation and stalled bailout talks with the International Monetary Fund as the country teeters on the brink of default, the military is unlikely to boot the elected government and take direct control. The leader of Pakistan’s last coup, General Pervez Musharraf, had left office fifteen years earlier as a highly unpopular and underrated figure.
Pakistan’s rupee fell to a record low of Rs 299 per dollar this month, while dollar bonds are trading at distressed levels. The currency has declined nearly 20% this year, among the worst performers in the world.
“The army’s problem is that every measure against Imran will increase his popularity,” Wilsey-Wilsey said. “It could also lead to divisions among corps commanders who will be concerned about alienating the military from the people – the military will doubtless consider options less intrusive than a coup, including delaying elections.”
Khan’s relations with the army were not always so tense. After coming to power, he openly acknowledged that the military, which enjoys a sizable defense budget and extensive business interests across Pakistan, has a role to play in governing the country. But the relationship began to crumble in 2021 as Khan’s anti-American rhetoric pushed the country further away from the US as the economy deteriorated, drawing Islamabad closer to Russia and China.
Eventually, it was the Khan’s attempt to control military promotions that escalated tensions. He publicly opposed then-Army Chief Qamar Javed Bajwa’s choice to head Pakistan’s dreaded spy agency, voicing support for one of his own colleagues to continue in the role. Bajwa eventually got his way, but the incident sowed the seeds for Khan’s ouster.
cool relationships
London’s Associate Fellow Farzana Shaikh said, “By seeking to intervene and intervene once again in the business of military appointments – surely, as in the past, an area where military guards are within their prerogatives.” Envy in form.” Chatham House Research Institute. “It’s a familiar routine, we’ve been here before. Other parties have also splintered and fragmented under pressure from the military establishment.”
He also had a strained relationship with Bajwa’s successor, General Asim Munir. As prime minister, Khan removed Munir from the role of intelligence chief. Khan recently lit up the matter by personally blaming the recent turmoil on Munir’s desire for power and on Monday he compared the situation in Pakistan to the rise of Adolf Hitler in the 1930s.
Hours after the government said this week it was considering banning his PTI over attacks on military offices and buildings, Khan adopted a more conciliatory tone. He offered to hold talks with Sharif’s administration and the military, saying he was ready to form a committee to talk to “anybody who is in power today”.
Khan’s aide Bukhari said, “It is important to have a political dialogue between everybody.” “Yet at some stage, the two most powerful men in the country, the army chief and Imran Khan, have to sit down and discuss the way forward.”
Any such talks for Khan will now come from a position of relative weakness. Public sympathy for the army has also increased since the attacks on army property and officers’ homes.
In the port city of Karachi, Pakistan’s business hub, massive banners and posters – some covering the entire length of multi-storey buildings – proclaimed “Long Live Pakistan” and “Long Live the Soldier”. In others, Munir is accompanied by his officers. Trade unions have held rallies in support of the armed forces, while television and film stars have taken to social media to declare their love and support for the army.
Sixteen people accused of participating in the violence targeting army buildings have been handed over to military courts, according to a document shared by PTI.
According to Madeeha Afzal, a fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, the strategy against Khan is “a page out of the military’s normal playbook” in dealing with dissident politicians and parties.
“If this is history repeating itself with the army’s assertiveness,” she said, “it does not look good for Imran Khan, his party or Pakistan’s democracy.”
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)