Imran Khan was expecting an uneventful day in court as he traveled from Lahore to Islamabad to appear before the Islamabad High Court on May 9. It was not meant to be. Thirteen months after being ousted as prime minister in a vote of no confidence, Mr. Khan was escorted from the court compound and into an armored car by paramilitary personnel and deposited in the custody of the country’s anti-corruption authorities. instead of contesting early elections, which he has been doing been asking for monthsFrenzied populists may have to watch the general elections later this year from a prison cell – if they are held at all.
The alleged reason for Mr. Khan’s arrest is alleged corruption in connection with a land deal. (He denies the allegations.) Yet the arrests appear to be related to his growing feud with Pakistan’s armed forces. On 6 May Mr Khan claimed at a public rally that Major General Faisal Naseer of the army’s intelligence wing was plotting his assassination. Mr Khan had blamed Shehbaz Sharif for a failed attempt on his life in November, who instead held the prime minister and other senior government and intelligence officials responsible. There is a bullet in his leg.
In a rare public statement, the army’s public relations branch called Mr Khan’s latest allegations “highly unfortunate, reprehensible and unacceptable” and threatened legal action. That didn’t stop Mr Khan from repeating them in a video recorded on his way to court. He was arrested in Islamabad shortly afterwards.
The arrests are the latest development in a political and constitutional crisis that has been going on for months. Mr. Khan has never accepted the legality of his removal from the premiership a year ago. In January his party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), dissolved two provincial assemblies, including in the crucial state of Punjab, to force the government to hold early national elections. But Mr. Sharif wants similar elections to be held in all the four provinces and the center in October, after the end of the parliament’s term. The crisis turned constitutional when the Supreme Court ordered elections in Punjab on May 14 as demanded by Mr. Khan, an order that has been rejected by the central government and parliament.
It appears that Mr. Sharif and his government are willing to take time to reform the economy before elections are held. Annual inflation reached a record rate of 36.4% in April. Food-price inflation is running at 48.1%. GDP growth this year is projected to be a disappointing 0.5%. With an estimated $77.5bn in debt repayments due by June 2026, and no indication that the IMF will soon agree to restart the $6.5bn loan programme, Pakistan is at risk of default despite bilateral support from China. On a weekend visit to Islamabad, China’s foreign minister called on the country to sort out its chaotic politics and focus on improving the economy.
The more immediate risk is a breakdown of law and order. Small protests have already turned violent. The protests at military sites have been one of the most dangerous and unusual in Pakistan’s political history. In Lahore, the usually heavily fortified residence of the city’s top military commander was stormed by stick-wielding protesters who broke windows, set furniture on fire and destroyed household items. A demonstrative peacock was seen being petted. “I took it from the Corps Commander’s house. This is public money. We are taking back what they had stolen.
In Pakistan, where the army is both feared and respected, the images of protests against it on social media are unusual and dramatic. Maybe the government is trying to stop people from watching them. At the time of publication, Pakistanis across the country were reporting outages of social media, internet and mobile-phone networks.
It is not a new thing for a political leader to fall in favor of Pakistan’s army. What is new is the willingness of Mr. Khan and his supporters to fight the army. Mr. Sharif and his government can imagine their odds of staying in power as Mr. Khan clashes with the military. But Pakistan may be closer to the edge than they know.
© 2023, The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved. From The Economist, published under license. Original content can be found at www.economist.com
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