Karnataka Elections: Will the BJP survive or will the Congress get a revival dose from the South? JD(S) hopes to make or break

who would that be? Months of relentless, high-octane campaigning as well as grand roadshows and state visits, barbs exchanged and promises made, who will take the driver’s seat – the results of the single-phase Karnataka assembly elections were announced on May 10. Will be done after counting of votes on Saturday.

The election saw a tough fight between the Congress and the BJP, with most exit polls predicting a tough fight between the two, leaving room for the JD(S) to play the role of kingmaker in the event of a hung assembly. While Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai said he was confident of a landslide victory for the BJP, it remains to be seen whether the saffron camp can rewrite history and once again emerge as the single largest party as it did in 2018. happened. Will explain the results. Not just Bommai, but the electoral fortunes of top leaders like Congress veterans Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar as well as JD(S)’s HD Kumaraswamy.

This time Karnataka recorded a record 73.19 percent polling. But the Election Commission of India’s strategy to beat urban apathy in the state capital, Bengaluru, failed to hold elections mid-week; The IT capital recorded a dismal 53 per cent polling. The counting of votes will begin at 8 am in 36 centers across the state and election officials expect a clear picture about the result by afternoon. Elaborate security arrangements have been made across the state, especially in and around the counting centres.

Will the Congress win or is the BJP ready to break the electoral illusion?

The Karnataka Assembly has 224 seats and a party has to reach the 113-majority mark to strengthen its chances of forming a stable government. Political analysts have said that there were two phases leading up to polling day – one dominated by the Congress before 26 April and the other by the BJP after this date.

Many attributed the lack of momentum to the Congress for its manifesto promise to ban the Bajrang Dal and party president Mallikarjun Kharge’s “poisonous snake” remarks to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Election Campaign; He attacked Sonia Gandhi for misquoting her “sovereignty” remark and detailed how the Congress had abused her “91 times”. The old poll estrangement where people never voted for the party that came to power.

A decisive victory in a politically complex state like Karnataka would augur well for the electoral future of the Congress ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. However, there is no clarity on who will take the chief minister’s chair – between Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar, and now G Parameshwara is the latest entrant in the game.

Will JD(S) be kingmaker again?

According to pollsters, it could very well be a hung-assembly situation, giving the JD(S) and its former prime minister HD Deve Gowda a chance to again be the key to forming the government. In 2018 as well, the party played its cards in such a way that the BS Yediyurappa-led BJP government lasted only seven days despite emerging as the single largest party by winning 104 seats.

In the last elections, the Congress won 78 seats, while the JD(S) won 37. The BJP could not garner enough support to prove majority in the assembly and hence, Kumaraswamy as CM was replaced by the Congress-JD(S) coalition government. But this arrangement only lasted for 14 months as the government saw a massive defection to the BJP as 15 MLAs from the Congress and the JD(S) resigned. This led to the collapse of the coalition government and the restoration of the BJP-led government in the state.

Other parties like the ruling Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi and Punjab have also fielded their candidates. But all three parties in the main fight have made it clear that they need a clear mandate to form a strong and stable government, as was the case after the 2018 elections.

(With PTI inputs)