Despite the three-day delay from the normal date of October 10, the monsoon withdrawal this year is to be a week earlier than last year. In contrast to the current absence of weather systems in the Bay of Bengal this year, frequent development of cyclonic circulations and depressions in the Bay in 2020 and 2021 gave way to prolonged, almost continuous, rainfall from October 1 to at least October 20.
“Monsoon is very likely to retreat on Friday,” said Regional Meteorological Centre (RMC) director GK Das. “It is not unusual for the withdrawal to be delayed in Bengal until around October 20, especially in recent years. But this year the retreat is likely to be near normal,” he added. The heavy rainfall across the country, including south Bengal and Kolkata, between the last week of September and first week of October gave rise to the projection by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) that monsoon may be delayed. Additionally, just two years ago, IMD announced that 2021 saw the seventh most delayed monsoon in 46 years for the country as a whole, with the longest delays occuring in the last 11 years since 1975, leading to the notion of a long term shift in the dates of monsoon withdrawal.
The rising heat, inching towards 35° Celsius, coupled with scorching sun over the last three days indicates that a retreat, also called ‘October heat’, is around the corner. The RMC predicted on Thursday that rain respite from the heat may not happen anytime soon.