Nearly a week after the declaration of Karnataka election results, clearly different views are emerging between the Congress and the BJP. The former is trying to analyze the political implications of making Siddaramaiah the chief minister, while the RSS-BJP seniors are busy analyzing how the Hindutva plank failed in the coastal Karnataka region.
Despite the smooth working equation between BJP general secretary BL Santhosh and RSS general secretary Dattatreya Hosabale – both from the Sangh lineage and the Mysore region – the saffron party’s overall vote-share coastal karnataka The number of seats also declined by almost half in many seats as BJP’s tally of 17 seats in 2018 came down to 13 this time. The coastal region of Karnataka consists of three districts and the entire region has 19 assembly constituencies.
Of the 19 assembly seats in Dakshina Kannada, Udupi and Uttara Kannada districts, the BJP lost two in Uttara Kannada and one in Dakshina Kannada. According to News18’s vote-share analysis, the BJP has registered a decline of at least 20% to 40% in vote share even in the seats it has won.
Extreme drop in vote share
Dakshina Kannada, which has been an RSS-BJP bastion for decades, also saw an unusual decline in BJP’s vote share in seats won by the party. In Dakshina Kannada seats like Belthangady, the BJP’s vote share is set to drop from 82% in 2018 to 53% in 2023, even though the party managed to win the seat.
In Moodabidri, which is known to be one of the strongholds of the RSS-BJP alliance, the vote share of the saffron party declined to 56% from 76.19% in 2018. In Sulia, BJP’s vote share dropped to an all-time low of 89 to 57%. % in 2018. The BJP was winning the seat with huge margins from the last three assembly elections.
The party lost Puttur in the district to the Congress. Hindus constitute around 72% of the voters here, while Muslims constitute around 23% of the total. The BJP had registered a vote share of 82.47% in the 2018 elections here, but it came down to 23% this year.
The RSS is said to be disappointed with the result as the organization is most active at the grassroots level in coastal Karnataka. It has suffered, as many of its volunteers were killed in the region and it has been in constant conflict with the now-banned PFI in the region.
Of the six seats in Uttara Kannada, the BJP won two – Yellapur and Kumta. The Congress won the remaining four – Sirsi, Karwar, Haliyal and Bhatkal. In Dakshina Kannada, it won six seats – Moodbidri, Bantwal, Sulia, Mangaluru City South, Mangaluru City North and Belthangady. Congress won Puttur and Mangalore.
‘Not about halal-hijab, about insecurity’
A senior RSS functionary told News18 that the election result was “not a failure of the hijab-halal issues, which are now being portrayed as the primary reason for the defeat”.
“Issues related to hijab and halal were not uncommon. These were relevant issues that were raised and enquired. It is unfortunate that the government which was our own, did not really stand by our volunteers, our members. He fought a lone battle against PFI fanatics and extremists.”
Significantly, the assassination of RSS member and BJYM leader Praveen Netru was a turning point for the RSS. Resentment grew among local BJP and RSS members against the government.
“Dozens of our young volunteers were literally killed, some seriously injured while defending our religious values. Their families were not taken care of by the government. We Sangh people and the local people somehow managed their families, which gave them some relief. Some murder cases have been going on for decades, witnesses have also turned hostile. The government did nothing. Our jawans were feeling insecure.
“In many seats where Hindus have an absolute majority, BJP’s vote share fell to 30% to 40%. BJP has lost in some. Is this unusual or not unusual for a region like Coastal Karnataka? Anyone who understands this area will view this with serious concern. Our workers didn’t go out, they lost faith,” said another senior official based out of the coastal region in Karnataka.