Oil prices fall on disappointing China, US economic data despite IEA demand forecast

Last Update: May 16, 2023, 23:47 IST

Both benchmarks climbed more than 1% on Monday, reversing a three-session losing streak.  (Image: Reuters file)

Both benchmarks climbed more than 1% on Monday, reversing a three-session losing streak. (Image: Reuters file)

Brent crude futures were down 30 cents at $74.93 a barrel by 12:57 p.m. EDT (1657 GMT), while US West Texas Intermediate crude was down 22 cents at $70.89.

Oil futures declined on Tuesday as weaker-than-expected economic data in China and the United States offset forecasts of higher global demand from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Brent crude futures fell 30 cents to $74.93 a barrel at 12:57 p.m. EDT (1657 GMT), while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 22 cents to $70.89.

Both benchmarks climbed more than 1% on Monday, reversing a three-session losing streak.

Weighing on prices on Tuesday was Chinese data that undercut forecasts for growth in industrial production and retail sales in April, suggesting the world’s second-largest economy lost momentum at the start of the second quarter.

However, an 18.9% year-on-year increase in China’s oil refinery throughput in April to the second highest level on record helped keep a floor below crude prices.

“There’s a lot of concern about China’s industrial numbers, but if you look at their actual demand numbers or refinery runs, they’re knocking on the door to break records,” said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group.

Crude imports by China are on track to top 11 million barrels per day in May, to 10.67 million bpd, with refiners building ahead of the summer travel season in the Northern Hemisphere, Refinitiv Oil Research said.

Data compiled from Wood Mackenzie showed that China’s June refinery intake is expected to rise 1.5% month-on-month.

US data showed retail sales grew less than expected in April, pointing to the pain consumers are facing from rising prices and interest rates.

The IEA raised its forecast for global oil demand this year by 200,000 bpd to a record 102 million bpd. It said China’s recovery after the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions has exceeded expectations, reaching a record 16 million bpd in March.

In another bullish development, the US Energy Department said on Monday it would buy 3 million barrels of crude for delivery in August to begin replenishing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

The SPR fell to its lowest level since 1983, when President Joe Biden’s administration last year sold the biggest ever from emergency reserves of 180 million barrels in a bid to stabilize surging oil markets and pump higher oil prices in the country. As part of a strategy to combat prices. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Meanwhile, US commercial crude stocks fell by about 1.3 million barrels last week, according to analysts polled by Reuters. Investors are awaiting the weekly industry inventory data after the government’s report on Wednesday after the market closed on Tuesday. [EIA/S]

Additionally, widespread fires in Canada’s Alberta province have shut down at least 319,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, representing 3.7% of Canada’s production.

Global crude supplies could also tighten in the second half of the year as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, a grouping known as OPEC+, implement additional production cuts.

(This story has not been edited by News18 staff and is published from a syndicated news agency feed)