Pakistan heading for free fall: what does it mean for India?

What is Pakistan’s political crisis about?

Imran Khan and his PTI party have worked relentlessly to target Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s government since he was ousted from office last April. Khan clashed repeatedly with Pakistan’s military, which is often the ultimate power-broker in the country. Last year’s devastating floods and a major economic crisis have made Prime Minister Sharif’s government very unpopular. The army’s clashes with Khan also portrayed the armed forces in an unflattering light. Khan, arguably Pakistan’s most popular politician, has called for fresh elections, which he believes will return him to power.

What is behind Khan’s arrest?

Khan was arrested on corruption charges in a money laundering case involving Pakistan’s biggest real estate tycoon. The arrest sparked a wave of protests, which led to eight deaths and more than 1,000 arrests. Protesters attacked military properties including the General Headquarters in Rawalpindi. Sharif warned that the protests would be dealt with sternly. Enraged by the attack on its properties, the army also warned of dire consequences. According to Pakistani media, the government has approved the deployment of the army to pacify the capital Islamabad and the provinces.

What happens next in Pakistan?

Khan is being questioned by the National Accountability Bureau, which claims to act as an anti-corruption watchdog. Big leaders of his party have also been arrested. The deployment of the army may be aimed at stabilizing the domestic situation, but no long-term solution appears to be working to address the grievances of the protesters.

What next for Pak politics?

Some believe that the crisis triggered by Khan’s arrest could prove to be a watershed moment in the country’s politics. The army, which pulled the strings behind the scenes for decades, is now openly working against a popular national politician. This has earned it a lot of criticism. Apart from this, experts say that there could be a split in the army regarding Khan. The fact that Prime Minister Sharif was missing in action as the crisis escalated is unlikely to do his approval ratings much good.

Will this crisis affect India?

Former foreign secretary Shyam Saran suggests that Pakistan’s domestic troubles could trigger more activity across the Line of Control. The recent terrorist attacks in Kashmir have added to the tensions. At the end of the day, New Delhi has little control over which group comes out on top. It is not clear whether the bilateral relationship, on the rocks for the time being, will fundamentally change – regardless of who takes power in Islamabad. Division over Kashmir and cross-border terrorism reduce the chances of a rapprochement.