Congress workers celebrate in Karnataka. (PTI)
Analysts told News18 that apart from high-profile defection of leaders like Jagadish Shettar and Laxman Savadi, the rainbow coalition of Dalits, Adivasis and Muslims forged by the Congress worked against the consolidation of Lingayat votes for the BJP.
Of all the six constituencies, in Mumbai/Kittur Karnataka, the Congress got a big boost on Saturday as it reversed its tally in the last assembly polls in 2018. Out of the total 50 seats, INC got lead in 32 constituencies while INC got lead in 32 seats. Till 3 pm, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is leading in 17 seats.
In this region, the Congress is on the rise with a vote share of around 44%, an increase of around five-six percentage points and 16 seats compared to the 2018 assembly polls, while the BJP’s vote share fell to around 38-39% and Its seats were reduced by 13.
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Apart from high-profile defection of leaders such as Jagadish Shettar and Laxman Savadi, a rainbow coalition of Dalits, tribals and Muslims forged by the Congress worked against the consolidation of Lingayat votes for the BJP. Political analysts told News18 that a complete concentration of Dalit, Adivasi and Muslim votes helped the Congress break the Lingayat stronghold of the BJP.
Senior Congress leaders also admitted that the Adivasi, Dalit and Muslim alliance worked for them and that the split in the Lingayat community made it stronger.
“Corruption, unpopularity, anti-people decisions – all worked against the BJP. But we did not appeal for a caste-specific vote base. However, the poor and the downtrodden, including Adivasis, Dalits and Muslims, voted for us. Members of the Lingayat community also voted for us in this constituency,” said KPCC working president and former state home minister Ramalinga Reddy.
Congratulations to the Congress party for the victory in the Karnataka Assembly Elections. My best wishes for fulfilling the aspirations of the people.— Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) May 13, 2023
Prime factors
There are several factors which led to complete political upheaval in the Kittur region. “One of the many important factors working in favor of the Congress is the very important rainbow alliance of Adivasis, Dalits and Muslims. They united in support of the Congress. BJP has been winning in this area for many elections. Sandeep Shastri, a senior political analyst and national coordinator of Lokniti Network, said the region, where the Lingayat community is considered the most influential and decisive factor, has so far remained a BJP stronghold.
“The departure of a tall Lingayat leader, Jagadish Shettar and Prakashiki also took a toll on the Lingayat voters. That’s why the Lingayat vote also did not consolidate in favor of the BJP like in the previous elections. And apart from all these specific equations, the anti-incumbency and unpopularity of the state government played a very important role which should not be ignored.
Acting Vice-Chancellor of the University of Mysore and political analyst Prof. Muzaffar H. Asadi said that the government’s decision to end 2B reservation works against the BJP.
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“Raising issues like hijab or halal alienated a specific section of Muslim voters in the party’s field. In the last election, Muslims voted for BJP instead of PM Modi, but with all these anti-Islam issues, the community got united against BJP. The decision to end 2B reservation pushed them further away. The state government’s move to cancel reservation for Muslims under 2B of the Other Backward Classes (OBC) category and bring them under the Economically Weaker Sections (EWS) quota has sparked discontent.
In fact, the Lingayat community, which used to vote heavily for the BJP, was also shattered after Shettar’s defection. “There was a sense of frustration in the community because they saw this as a mistreatment of their leaders,” he said.