State elections: Electoral arithmetic and calculations of political parties every day

It’s election time. Election campaigning is in full swing in Karnataka and election preparations are underway in MP, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Telangana. Seeing the Gujarat model, BJP is giving more importance to Kejriwal’s AAP party. You are being asked to speak against the BJP so that its individual image can be created and Congress votes can be cut in Rajasthan as in Gujarat.

As far as Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are concerned, AAP is not going to last much there. But in Rajasthan, the BJP will definitely benefit from AAP on seats with less vote margin. Ashok Gehlot may keep saying that this time the government is going to repeat, but he knows in his heart that what has happened in Rajasthan during his entire tenure apart from Sachin Pilot and his own quarrels?

Some good facilities have been announced just before the elections, but every government does this before the elections. What new did you do? Anyway, there is no such case of repetition of governments in Rajasthan. In the beginning when there was only Congress and no one else, then it was a different matter. That’s why Gehlot’s magic will work this time, the least possibility of this is only when BJP keeps on making mistakes on mistakes. BJP’s mistakes means Rajasthan’s local leadership.

If Vasundhara Raje is not promoted in Rajasthan, then BJP’s loot may sink.

The gist of the discussion in political circles is that if Vasundhara Raje is not promoted, the BJP’s loot may sink. The math is simple – Vasundhara Raje has a direct influence on 25-30 seats. In terms of area as well as people and candidates. Apart from Vasundhara Raje, there is no other leader in BJP who alone has such influence. The position is clear – if the BJP continues to ignore Vasundhara Raje, as it has been doing for the past five years, the Congress will have no choice but to emerge stronger.

BJP will have to give rein to its many CM candidates. Without this welfare is not possible.

On the other hand Raman Singh of BJP has been inactive for the last five years in Chhattisgarh. Raman Singh did not do even five percent of the activities that Congress’s Baghel has been doing. However, even in this situation, BJP is trusting Raman Singh only. Perhaps the BJP leadership has interviewed the truth of Chhattisgarh. Perhaps he has come to know very well what it is to be post-election?

Raman Singh did not do even five percent of the activities that Bhupesh Baghel of Congress has been doing in Chhattisgarh.

Earlier, when Ajit Singh was in Chhattisgarh, the situation was different, but now there is almost a direct contest between Congress and BJP, so the chances of BJP’s victory in this state are not as visible as they may be in other states. As far as Madhya Pradesh is concerned, the contest here can be close. Still, the upper hand of the Congress seems to be light. Kamal Nath alone will exert so much energy. The organization is mostly dormant, so it is different.

Overall, even today the Congress does not have the break of the BJP’s Panna Pramukh. Congress may get booth workers in the cities, but there are many areas where even today the party is short of booth workers. The surprising thing is that no concrete work has been done at the organization level to fulfill this. There is little hope for this in the future. At present there is no break for KCR in Telangana.