Is Shiv Sena heading towards a vertical split in the party for the first time this time as senior leader Eknath Shinde revolts with his loyalists?
The Shiv Sena-NCP-Congress alliance, which currently rules Maharashtra under Uddhav Thackeray’s chief ministership, has 152 MLAs – 55 of the Shiv Sena, 53 of the NCP and 44 of the Congress – as its main strength. The alliance also claims the support of some smaller parties and independent candidates.
The coalition government, in office since November 2019, is currently facing an existential crisis as Shinde claims the support of over 40 MLAs. If one goes into the history of the party, the Shiv Sena sees the first real possibility of a major vertical split in the party.
True, it has seen similar incidents in the past, but this time the numbers are bigger as the rebel MLAs are camping in Guwahati.
A figure of over 40 is more than a sufficient number to legally break away from the party under the mandate of the Anti-Defection Act, 1985. The Shiv Sena currently has 55 members in the Assembly and by law, if 37 MLAs decide to defect to the party, either to merge with another party like the BJP or to form a new party, they are legally bound to do so. are entitled to.
This act mostly prevents the political tendency to leave and join political parties of their own free will through corrupt practices. This applies to both Parliament and State Legislatures.
Under the Act, in state legislatures, if an MLA or a group of legislators of a political party defying the party line or resigns voluntarily, they become disqualified and lose their assembly membership. If they decide to vote against the party line, or if they decide to join another party, they are disqualified. In one sentence, a legislator cannot defy the party whip – unless the group of legislators who have resigned has the numbers.
When two-thirds of the legislators of a political party decide to defect, the risk of disqualification is eliminated if the numbers are in favor. This means that the political opposition BJP in the state needs the support of 40 MLAs.
This is not the first time that the Shiv Sena is facing defeat in the party, but it will be the first major setback for the party since the turmoil of 1991.
In December 1991, Chhagan Bhujbal, considered close to Bal Thackeray, threatened to split the party with 17 of the 52 MLAs. Bhujbal was upset with Manohar Joshi’s growing stature in the party and said that he wanted to form Shiv Sena (B). Then the president Madhukarrao Choudhary received a letter announcing his decision to leave the party and accepted it. Bhujbal was immediately sacked by Bal Thackeray. Later sixteen MLAs who left the party also wanted to withdraw but the Speaker did not accept it. Bhujbal later joined the Congress.
The second incident occurred in July 2005 after a direct fight between Narayan Rane and Uddhav Thackeray. Rane saw the rise of Uddhav Thackeray eclipse his political career and wanted to split the party with 40 of the 62 MLAs, an attempt ultimately thwarted by the Shiv Sena. Later 12 MLAs along with Rane joined the Congress in defiance of the party whip. Although the party did not see this as a major split, it lost a mass leader with extensive political experience. Rane was made a minister in the NCP-Congress government led by Vilasrao Deshmukh.
The third incident also occurred in 2005, which again stemmed from a leadership feud. This time the face was Bal Thackeray’s successor and Uddhav Thackeray’s cousin Raj Thackeray. Raj left the Shiv Sena in December 2005, but made it clear that he wanted to split the party, although many MPs and MLAs were ready to join him.
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