We are almost halfway through 2023 in no time and we have seen some major hits and misses this year as far as movies are concerned. It would not be wrong to say that these have been the two extreme ends of the business. One cannot forget the fact that we got some sleeper hits, however, they were few and far between. As we already head into the next half of the year, here’s a look back at the past six months. ETimes spoke to some industry insiders, trade experts to get an insight into the trends we see and what to expect from the next half of 2023.
hits and misses
One can count the hits of the first half of 2023 on one’s fingers. It was ‘Pathan’ that broke all records and emerged as the highest grossing film in the history of Indian cinema. So, the year started with a bang but after that it saw a decline. Trade analyst Taran Adarsh believes, “It was actually more ‘gum and a little bit of happiness’. We had a chance to put up good numbers, but we really messed it up. Because, there were many big releases. Of course there wasPathanwhich started with a bang, and there wasstory of kerala‘, but apart from that, the start of the shocks we get in 2023’selfie,Shehzada,Someone’s brother, someone’s life‘, ‘Bhola’, and the biggest, I think, was ‘Adipurush’. You know, it was a shock to the whole industry. Because the way the film flopped after the first three days was a shock! People were shocked. He didn’t know how to react to this. I would say we’re back to a position one. ‘Mrs Chatterjee vs Norway’ also did moderately well. But the failures were more important than the successes.”
Film exhibitor Akshay Rathi says, “We have seen two extreme scenarios where films which are doing exceptionally well and films which are not doing well are failing miserably! Had it performed before the pandemic, I don’t know whether ‘KGF 2’ and ‘RRR’ would have performed the way they did before the pandemic. The last few months have been somewhat uncertain and volatile. are full, where we found so many movies and they surprised us so much that we didn’t even imagine them.
return on investment
Many times movies earn huge amount at the box office but their budget is very high. So, despite the large numbers, there is not much return on investment (ROI). In terms of ROI, everyone unanimously agrees that ‘The Kerala Story’ has performed the best. Says Rathi, “Since ‘The Kerala Story’ was made on a very conservative budget, no one could have imagined what happened. So, it’s a good film in terms of ROI. Having said that, I don’t Know what will cost the film the recovery from satellite rights will be high. Hence, it had scope to earn massively from theatres. Whereas, ‘Pathan’ has earned massive revenue from all three – satellite, streaming and theatres. “
Producer and film business expert, Girish Johar says, “The Hindi box office did a business of around Rs 1800 to 1900 crore in the first six months last year. We have almost replicated the same figure in the first six months of 2023 as well.” Which is not a good sign because I was thinking we should move on to some ground. Without any doubt, ‘Pathan’ is the flag bearer of the first half. But these are the little gems that give me so much hope. What happens is that big films do well at the box-office but small films do well in numbers. And even if they do average, it matters because there may be 10 big films in a year, but what about the remaining 40 weeks?”
Are the mid segment films suffering due to this?
The films that have suffered the most after the pandemic are mid-budget, content-driven movies. Rathi believes, “I don’t think any film of Ayushmann Khurrana or Varun Dhawan or Rajkumar Rao would have performed like this before the pandemic or they would not have been suppressed like that. If you look at what happened”. ‘Afwah’ or ‘Bheed’ was quite shocking.These are middle segment films which are doing poorly and not performing as expected of them.
Johar agrees, “The audience rejection rate is very high, irrespective of the star. Earlier, an Ayushmann Khurrana or Rajkumar Rao film used to make Rs 50 crore or Rs 70 crore, sometimes even Rs 100 crore. This is because the box office of those medium budget films was very good and the fraternity was booming along with the exhibition industry! But now a medium budget film is making 15-20 crores and not getting any traction. So, the viewers are now very clear about where they want to invest their money. Going to the theater and spending for a film is a very committed activity.”
Expectations from the rest of 2023
Although the first half of the year has not lived up to expectations, industry and business are always quite optimistic. In the next six months, we have many big films lined up, starting with Karan Johar’s ‘Rocky Aur Rani Ki Prem Kahani’. So, what are the business expectations?
Taran Adarsh says, “I think we need to work on better scripts. We need to work on content. Yes, star power is important. I’m not denying it. But ultimately, it’s all about content. It depends. If you don’t don’t focus on the content, then I think we will again see the same scenario which we are seeing in the first part. I really hope that every film will do well. Because the run of films is very important. You can’t really pin hopes on just one film. It could be Karan’s film or Shah Rukh Khan’s ‘Jawaan’ or it could betiger 3, We don’t need one film, but many films to get us out of trouble.”
Some skirmishes are also coming to the fore. Be it ‘Gadar 2’ vs ‘OMG 2’ on Independence Day or ‘Animal‘ vs ‘Sam Bahadur’ on 1 December. However, here is a shocking opinion on this. Rathi says, “Frankly there is a conflict between Independence Day bridge 2 And oh my god 2, I really think there is scope for another mid segment film to come. With ‘Animal’ going ahead, I really feel that another middle segment film where there is overlap of audience is not the same as ‘Gadar 2’ and ‘OMG 2’. There is scope for one more to come. Independence Day, Raksha Bandhan, extended holiday, in my opinion, can actually accommodate two mega scale chartbusters. So, I really think that another mid segment film could really work, to be able to adapt their viewership to theaters across the country, increase the programming options, and cater to different demographics and Psychology and geography can increase the number of options patrons have. When it comes to picking a film for the theatres, as this is a weekend that is likely to do a business of 150 to 200 crores!”
Girish Johar also believes that sometimes the off weeks should be put to good use. He further adds, “The second half has started on a sluggish note as there is no major release till July 28 till ‘RARKPK’. There is ‘Satyaprem Ki Katha’ but it released on June 29. So, there has been a long gap. It’s been a month when no big films released and it seemed like a waste of opportunity. However, I am always optimistic and with more films lined up, I am looking forward to a better second part.”
While biggies like ‘RARKPK’, ‘Jawaan’, ‘Tiger 3’, ‘Dunky’ and ‘Animal’ have huge expectations, trade experts expect the unexpected from some of the smaller films as well. For example ‘The Vaccine War’, because Vivek Agnihotri’s last release ‘The Kashmir Files’ surprised everyone.