The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has released its annual update on its projections for temperature trends over the next decade. The forecast is, as expected, worrisome. Annual mean global near-surface temperatures are expected to be 1.1°–1.8°C above the 1850–1900 average for each year between 2023 and 2027. There is a 66% chance that global near-surface temperatures will exceed 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels at least one year before 2027, although it is unlikely that the five-year average will exceed this threshold. The 1.5°C limit, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has repeatedly said, is what best does to avoid the catastrophic consequences of global warming. While world leaders at climate summits agree some of their actions are in line with keeping temperature rise within this Rubicon, current climate policies are set to warm the world by more than 2 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.
The WMO adds that at least one year, from 2023 to 2027, will be the warmest on record – higher than the 14.84 °C reported in 2016 (it was about 0.07 °C warmer than the previous record set in 2015). The five-year average for 2023-2027 was expected to be much higher than the previous five years (2018-2022). The seas are also burning. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is likely to be positive in December to February 2023-24, meaning warming of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean is likely to be at least half a degree, one degree above normal Is. As India prepares for an El Nino this monsoon, the India Meteorological Department is already indicating that monsoon rains will be below ‘normal’. El Niño will “combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory,” WMO Secretary-General Peteri Taalas said in a press statement referring to the update. Warmer oceans also mean stronger cyclones. Cyclone Mocha, which tore through Myanmar this week killing at least 60 people and causing severe damage, turned out to be stronger than what was initially predicted. The WMO update does not have inputs specific to India; However, the overall trend in the indicators suggests that India, dependent on rain-fed agriculture and with its long coastline, will be severely tested by changes in the global climate. India’s ability to predict cyclones and meteorological anomalies has improved, but developing resilience is far more challenging. Greater investment in strengthening disaster related infrastructure is the need of the hour.