Lucknow Super Giantswin against Mumbai Indians The playoff race has opened up even more on Tuesday. But now we know that the defending champions, Gujarat Titans will be the sole leaders at the end of the league stage.
7 matches left to be played in the league stage of IPL 2023, there are now 128 possible combinations of outcomes. TOI looks at each of these possibilities to calculate individual teams’ chances of making it to the playoffs. As things stand, one team is certain to finish first, two others are almost certain to make the play-offs, with the fourth one the firm favorite to do so. Of the rest, two are eliminated, two others have little chance and two have a fair shot at their immediate target.
TOI’s Shankar Raghuraman crunches the numbers to determine how the teams fare on Wednesday, May 17 morning in 9 points:
1. GT is guaranteed to be in the top spot after Tuesday’s result in the MI-LSG game. No other team can match their tally of 18 points now.
2.Chennai Super Kings It is almost certain to make it to the top four on the basis of marks and the probability of finishing in this category alone or combined is 93%.
3. After leapfrogging Mumbai Indians to the third spot with Tuesday’s win, lsg There is still a 93% chance of making it to the top four. Once again this includes scenarios in which they are only joint fourth.
4. MI have dropped to fourth after Tuesday’s defeat, but their chances of making it to the top four on points are still a healthy 78.1%, although this includes scenarios where they end up tied for fourth.
5.rcb are in fifth place and their chances of finishing in the top four remain at 43.8%, although this includes the teams’ positions on points for the final spot.
6. Currently ranked 6th rrThe chances of making it to the top four remain at 18.8%. They can do no better than finish fourth, and that’s if they win their remaining games and other results come their way.
7.KKR, now in seventh place, could finish no better than joint fourth with two and four other teams. And his chances of achieving it are even less at 14.1%.
8. PBKS are eighth but with an extra game in hand means their chances of finishing in the top four on points stand at 43.8%, much better than RR or KKR and at par with fifth-placed RCB.
9. ranked ninth SRH And DC Already out of the play-offs in last place, their best possible is a sixth place.
How do we calculate these probabilities:
We looked at all 128 possible combinations of results and there are 7 matches left. We assumed that for a given match, both sides have equal chances of winning. Then we looked at how many combinations put each team in one of the top four slots based on points. This gives us our probability number. To take a specific example, of the 128 possible outcome combinations, GT ends up in the sole top spot in all 128. This translates to a 100% chance (read guaranteed) of being the sole leader at the end of the league stage. We do not take into account Net Run Rate or No Results (NR) as it is impossible to predict beforehand.
7 matches left to be played in the league stage of IPL 2023, there are now 128 possible combinations of outcomes. TOI looks at each of these possibilities to calculate individual teams’ chances of making it to the playoffs. As things stand, one team is certain to finish first, two others are almost certain to make the play-offs, with the fourth one the firm favorite to do so. Of the rest, two are eliminated, two others have little chance and two have a fair shot at their immediate target.
TOI’s Shankar Raghuraman crunches the numbers to determine how the teams fare on Wednesday, May 17 morning in 9 points:
1. GT is guaranteed to be in the top spot after Tuesday’s result in the MI-LSG game. No other team can match their tally of 18 points now.
2.Chennai Super Kings It is almost certain to make it to the top four on the basis of marks and the probability of finishing in this category alone or combined is 93%.
3. After leapfrogging Mumbai Indians to the third spot with Tuesday’s win, lsg There is still a 93% chance of making it to the top four. Once again this includes scenarios in which they are only joint fourth.
4. MI have dropped to fourth after Tuesday’s defeat, but their chances of making it to the top four on points are still a healthy 78.1%, although this includes scenarios where they end up tied for fourth.
5.rcb are in fifth place and their chances of finishing in the top four remain at 43.8%, although this includes the teams’ positions on points for the final spot.
6. Currently ranked 6th rrThe chances of making it to the top four remain at 18.8%. They can do no better than finish fourth, and that’s if they win their remaining games and other results come their way.
7.KKR, now in seventh place, could finish no better than joint fourth with two and four other teams. And his chances of achieving it are even less at 14.1%.
8. PBKS are eighth but with an extra game in hand means their chances of finishing in the top four on points stand at 43.8%, much better than RR or KKR and at par with fifth-placed RCB.
9. ranked ninth SRH And DC Already out of the play-offs in last place, their best possible is a sixth place.
How do we calculate these probabilities:
We looked at all 128 possible combinations of results and there are 7 matches left. We assumed that for a given match, both sides have equal chances of winning. Then we looked at how many combinations put each team in one of the top four slots based on points. This gives us our probability number. To take a specific example, of the 128 possible outcome combinations, GT ends up in the sole top spot in all 128. This translates to a 100% chance (read guaranteed) of being the sole leader at the end of the league stage. We do not take into account Net Run Rate or No Results (NR) as it is impossible to predict beforehand.