These surveys are done either by the state intelligence department or through private firms. Since covering a state takes a lot of time and manpower, they may engage a firm for every district. (Picture: AFP)
As the assembly elections are round the corner, all political parties are eager to know the ground reality and are hiring private research groups to conduct surveys. These tell parties about the strength of their candidates, popularity of schemes and trends in past elections
In a recent party meeting, Telangana Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao expressed confidence that Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) will win 95-105 seats out of total 119 seats in the upcoming assembly elections. He said that this has come to the fore in the surveys conducted by the party.
As elections are nearing, all political parties are eager to know the ground reality and hire private research groups to conduct surveys. These tell parties about the strength of their candidates, popularity of schemes and trends in past elections.
When asked about the methodology, Srinivasa Reddy of the Micro Studies and Research Group said: “The sample size and methods depend on the purpose of the survey. The size varies between 1 percent and 5 percent of voters in a particular geographic area or demographic.” We use stratified random sampling to select respondents from voter lists. Surveys are conducted to understand the popularity of a government or the performance of an elected representative. Some questions are qualitative. For example, if a respondent says the performance is poor, we proceed to ask the reason behind the answer. Surveys are conducted both face-to-face and online. If we are affiliated with a political party, we Don’t work for any other party in the state.”
These surveys are done either by the state intelligence department or through private firms. Since covering a state takes a lot of time and manpower, they may engage a firm for every district.
Speaking to News18, Phani Bhushan Kukkadapu, a political strategist and entrepreneur, said: “We conduct analytical surveys at MPTC, ZPTC levels which help the party select candidates for tickets. Sometimes, students are hired to conduct these surveys.”
Data analysis on the ground, he says, can reveal interesting trends. “For example, in a polling station, it may be found that during MLA election the Congress candidate gets the maximum number of votes, but in MP election it may be the reverse. We formulate questions to understand these discrepancies. Such In cases, respondents say they voted for the candidate rather than the party because he or she is a good candidate.”
Such micro polls reflect the thought process of voters. “For example, if we find many Praja Rajyam voters in an area, we will see if they can be converted into Jana Sena. We assume that since both the parties are run by mega families (actors Chiranjeevi and Pawan Kalyan), voters will vote in the same way. However, we may find that a popular Congress candidate joined the PRP and people voted for him.”
Data can also be collected through IVRS method. Surveys are conducted to find out the popularity of schemes like Dalit Bandhu. Some of the beneficiaries of the schemes may become campaigners for the party. Polling is more difficult in urban areas because voters do not have the time to cooperate.
