The India Meteorological Department (IMD) earlier this week updated its monsoon outlook since April. The latest analysis from weather models, which the IMD relies on, suggests the near-certainty of the development of El Nino, a cyclical phenomenon of warming in the central Pacific that in 10 years may be associated with less rainfall in six west, northwest and western joined. parts of central India, especially between July and August. However, despite the certainty of El Nino, the IMD has opted to retain its outlook for a ‘normal’ monsoon at 96% of the 50-year long-term average of 87 cm. Anything less than 96% would have been classified as ‘below normal’. Underlying its assessment is a calculation that another event, called the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) – a temperature swing between the western and eastern Indian Ocean – will favor the development of rain and offset the loss of rain from El Niño. Will compensate It is important to note that the IOD is not as strongly associated with abundant rainfall as El Niño is with little rainfall. In 1997, India had a strong El Niño but a positive IOD resulted in 2% more rainfall. However, since that year the two have not appeared at the same time, and it is the first time since then that both the factors are expected to play in the same monsoon season. The years in which India last recorded a deficit of more than 10% in monsoon rainfall were in 2014 and 2015 – both El Nino years.
The IMD update also highlights that the rainfed agriculture area of the country will be between 92%-104% of the average. While this technically qualifies as ‘normal’, it is also a very large variation and can mean a prolonged dry season followed by frequent torrential rains. This may help in working out the rainfall ‘number’ of the area but will not be helpful for agriculture. While each monsoon has its own characteristics, whatever the models may say, it will be important to look at the distribution of the monsoon, both spatially and temporally. Sharp losses during July and August, especially in central India, are likely to hit agricultural production. A more accurate assessment of rainfall during this month is available through IMD’s Extended Range Forecasts which give a fortnightly forecast; And they can be quite dynamic. Monsoon expected to reach Kerala by June 4, and whether it sticks to this date or comes slightly early or late, has little effect on the amount of rain during the main monsoon months. This year, states and the Center must redouble efforts to provide accurate, timely information to farmers, using all available information channels, right down to the block level.