The secretive country considers its space and military rocket programs a sovereign right, and analysts say the spy satellites are key to improving the effectiveness of its weapons. They say the focus on satellites also shows a shift toward pragmatic rather than political goals.
Atsuhito Isozaki, a professor of North Korean studies at Keio University in Japan, said Wednesday’s blowout, which state media blamed on an unstable and unreliable new engine system and fuel, would probably be followed by more efforts.
“Even if this satellite launch is a failure, the Secretary-General Kim Jong Un He himself has made it clear that this satellite is the first among many satellites. He said, ‘This will not be the end of those efforts.’
eyes in the sky
Since 1998, North Korea has launched five satellites, two of which put it into orbit, including its last attempt in 2016.
International observers said in 2016 the satellite appeared to be under control, but there is debate as to whether it sent any transmissions.
Previous space launches were widely seen as tests of hidden weapons, and the US military said Wednesday’s launch contained technologies related to North Korea’s banned intercontinental ballistic missiles (IBMs).ICBM,
But since 2016, North Korea has developed and launched three types of ICBMs, and now appears genuinely committed to keeping functioning satellites in space. Analysts said it will not only provide better intelligence on its enemies, but also prove it can keep up with other rising space powers in the region.
“North Korea has traditionally lacked strong strategic situational awareness capabilities, contributing to a chronic sense of insecurity,” said Ankit Panda of the US-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
He said North Korea could use such satellites to more effectively target South Korea and Japan or assess damage.
On the other hand, if North Korea can verify with its own satellites that the United States and its allies are not about to attack, it may prove stable, Panda said.
Technological Advancement, Political Message
Takeshi Watanabe, a senior fellow at the National Institute for Defense Studies, pointed out that in recent years, North Korea has focused on technical needs rather than prioritizing political messages. In the past it has done the opposite, for example by launching on specific days regardless of conditions.
“North Korea cannot maintain the credibility of its capabilities against Japan, the US and South Korea until it successfully launches a satellite, so it cannot afford to ignore its scientists,” he said, adding that The circumstances may mean that North Korea will not. Run in another launch.
North Korea’s isolated status means it does not have ground stations around the world to communicate with rockets and satellites.
For example, South Korea used a station in Antarctica to communicate with satellites it launched on its domestic rocket for the first time last week.
“[This]makes control and communication with satellites challenging,” said Brian Weeden of the Secure World Foundation, a US-based space policy and security organization. “It can basically only be done when they pass over North Korea, which for a low Earth orbit satellite would be a few times a day at most.”